What a Second Wave of Coronavirus in the Fall Could Look Like
- If we do see a drop in infection rates over the summer, history suggests the pandemic may surge again later on in the year.
- Early studies have found that people who contract the new coronavirus begin to develop antibodies against it within about 12 days.
- However, questions remain about the strength and durability of that immune response.
As temperatures and humidity levels rise, there are hopes that infection rates of the new coronavirus may drop in the spring and summer — following a similar seasonal pattern as the flu and common cold.
However, experts are warning that the virus will continue to pose a public health threat throughout the spring and summer.
Even if we do see a drop in infection rates, history suggests the pandemic may surge again later on.
Dr. Robert Glatter, an emergency physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City, told Healthline that he expects a second wave of infections to hit in the fall.
If that second wave arrives as he expects, it will coincide with flu season. That means there may be a lot of people who become sick in the fall and winter, compounding the pressure on the healthcare system.
“It will likely be worse than the initial wave we experienced this spring,” Glatter predicted. “Combined with influenza, the intensity of both viruses combined could make our initial COVID-19 look benign.”
A lot of questions remain about the virus’s transmission dynamics, which make it difficult to predict how the virus will behave.
“Any projection is really more of a guess, going from pandemic experience in the past,” Dr. Eric Cioe-Pena, an emergency physician and director of global health at Northwell Health in New Hyde Park, New York, told Healthline.
“The big reason why I think a lot of people talk about two peaks — one being in the fall, one being in the spring — is that traditionally, that’s what happened with influenza,” he continued.
Many respiratory viruses follow similar patterns, with infection rates peaking in the fall and winter. Those seasonal viruses include some but not all strains of coronavirus.
The coronavirus strains that cause the common cold are transmitted more readily at colder temperatures and lower humidity levels than in warm, dry conditions. As a result, they cause more illness in the fall and winter than the spring or summer.
On the other hand, the coronavirus strains that caused
This variability makes it hard to know how SARS-CoV-2 will behave.
“We’ve seen coronaviruses act in very different ways,” Cioe-Pena said.
“Some of them are very seasonal, some of them are not,” he continued, “so we don’t know what the pattern is going to be with this one.”
“There’s a lot of discussion right now about how the virus will do with heat and humidity — but we’ve seen some evidence in the Southern Hemisphere that it’s replicating just fine at the equator and below the equator,” Cioe-Pena said.
Experts north of the equator are watching southern countries closely to learn how seasonal shifts may affect the spread of the virus here.
The unfolding dynamics of the pandemic in southern countries may also shed light on how COVID-19 and influenza will interact in the fall.
“We can learn many valuable lessons from the behavior of influenza with COVID-19 from our colleagues in the Southern Hemisphere, as they experience both of these entities with their winter approaching,” Glatter said.
Protect your employees and customers with minimal distraction and effort
Automated Temperature Screening is effortless and creates a safe trusted environment that eases the tension, fear, and anxiety people often feel after a pandemic.
Automated Pass Management Temperature Screening Device. This device requires no physical interaction. Simply look at the camera and get the temperature in 1 second. Facial recognition checks-in and maintains records of the individual temperatures. Designed to help protect the health and safety of both employees and guests by preventing anyone with a temperature from entering a facility. it’s the perfect solution for office buildings, warehouses, schools, government buildings, museums, sports arenas, theme parks, movie theaters, gyms, rail stations, hotels, restaurants, or practically any public venue.
Protect your employees and customers with minimal distraction and effort.
TempSafe Technology makes temperature screening easy. Explore our site to learn more about our Temperature Screening products.
Temperature Screening Solution
Safely screen employees and visitors for high temperature as they walk into a building or a defined area. The system can prevent people from entering if the pre-defined temperature threshold is exceeded or are not wearing a mask, and trigger an alarm.
- Provides fast and accurate body-temperature measurement
- Detects if a protective mask is being worn
- Users can be denied door or system access if a high temperature or no mask is detected
- Alarm options include strobe light, siren and a popup on PC workstation
- Saves data in personnel safety log and verifies records.
- Data, alerts and reporting available
The solution combines a thermal camera and our latest face, palm and fingerprint recognition technology for employee authentication, providing advanced security and convenience, all on a single affordable device.
Used to help screen potentially affected people in the workplace and public venues:
Schools, airports, hospitals, construction sites, correctional institutions, government and office buildings
No Touch Biometric Reader
Embedded face & palm recognition sensor provides 100% hands-free hygienic user authentication.
- Used for various applications including Access Control, Time & Attendance, Visitor Management, Event Management & more
- User authentication read range up to 8 feet
- Face verification possible while wearing protective mask (Palm recognition advised while wearing mask)
- Dual-lens IR & VL camera recognizes faces in both total darkness and bright sunlight
- Access Levels, Groups, Holidays, DST, Duress Mode (password), Anti-Passback, Record Query
- Interfaces with
- KeyTracer Key Control Systems
- AssetTracer Smart Locker Systems
- Various Access Control Systems